Study Shows How Earth’s Orbit Affects Ice Ages
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A recent study suggests the next ice age will likely begin in about 11,000 years unless emissions change the effects of natural climate cycles.
最近的一项研究表明，除非排放改变自然气候循环的影响，否则下一个冰河时代可能会在大约 11,000 年后开始。
An ice age is a period of reduced temperatures causing ice to cover large areas of the northern and southern parts of the world.
冰河时代是一段气温降低的时期，导致冰覆盖世界北部和南部的大片地区。
A group of scientists studied changes in the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the sun, the tilt of the Earth’s axis and the movement of the axis itself, called a wobble. These three motions are believed to happen in cycles. The Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovitch developed a theory about 100 years ago that these cycles affected Earth’s long-term climate.
一组科学家研究了地球绕太阳轨道形状的变化、地轴的倾斜以及地轴本身的运动（称为摆动）。 这三种运动被认为是循环发生的。 大约 100 年前，塞尔维亚科学家米卢廷·米兰科维奇 (Milutin Milankovitch) 提出了一种理论，认为这些循环会影响地球的长期气候。
The team noted that small changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun caused predictable cycles of warming and cooling over a period of about 100,000 years.
研究小组指出，地球绕太阳轨道的微小变化会导致在大约 10 万年的时间内出现可预测的变暖和变冷循环。
These findings permitted the team to determine how the three factors of tilt, wobble, and the shape of Earth's orbit might have affected the Earth’s climate over the last 900,000 years.
这些发现使研究小组能够确定倾斜、摆动和地球轨道形状这三个因素在过去 90 万年中如何影响地球的气候。
The group published its findings in Science on February 27.
该小组于 2 月 27 日在《科学》杂志上发表了其研究结果。
The scientists examined a million-year record of climate by looking at ice sheets across the northern half of the world and deep ocean temperatures.
科学家们通过观察世界北半部的冰盖和深海温度来检查一百万年的气候记录。
They then compared this data with small but regular changes in Earth’s orbit over time.
然后，他们将这些数据与地球轨道随时间的微小但有规律的变化进行比较。
The lead writer of the study is Stephen Barker, a professor at Cardiff University in Britain. He told the French News Agency (AFP) that for many years it has been difficult for scientists to show exactly how small changes in Earth’s orbit have led to huge changes between warm and cold periods.
该研究的主要作者是英国卡迪夫大学教授斯蒂芬·巴克(Stephen Barker)。 他告诉法新社（法新社），多年来，科学家们一直很难准确地表明地球轨道的微小变化是如何导致温暖期和寒冷期之间的巨大变化的。
Earth is believed to go through cycles of ice ages and warm periods. The last ice age is thought to have ended around 11,700 years ago. Scientists, such as Milankovitch, have long seen a connection between Earth's orbit and climate.
人们相信地球会经历冰河时期和温暖时期的循环。 人们认为最后一个冰河时代结束于大约 11,700 年前。 米兰科维奇等科学家很早就发现了地球轨道与气候之间的联系。
However, researchers have struggled to precisely date when each of the climate changes happened. It has also been difficult for them to know exactly which orbit positions affect the start and stop of cold or warm periods.
然而，研究人员一直在努力准确确定每次气候变化发生的时间。 他们也很难确切地知道哪些轨道位置会影响冷期或暖期的开始和结束。
Barker said his team of researchers studied slow changes in temperature over long periods of time instead of only looking at shorter periods of change between cold and warm climates.
巴克说，他的研究小组研究了长时间内温度的缓慢变化，而不是只关注寒冷和温暖气候之间的较短时期的变化。
Barker told AFP, "We would expect a glaciation to occur within the next 11,000 years, and it would end in 66,000 years' time."
巴克告诉法新社：“我们预计冰川作用将在未来 11,000 年内发生，并将在 66,000 年后结束。”
Lorraine Lisiecki is a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a co-writer of the study. She said the study shows that changes in climate over tens of thousands of years are not random.
洛林·利谢茨基 (Lorraine Lisiecki) 是加州大学圣巴巴拉分校的教授，也是该研究的合著者。 她说，这项研究表明，数万年来的气候变化并不是随机的。
The team aims to expand its findings to investigate the long-term effects of human activity on climate. They also want to find out how it might affect Earth’s natural climate cycles.
该团队的目标是扩大其研究结果，以调查人类活动对气候的长期影响。 他们还想了解它如何影响地球的自然气候循环。
Issam Ahmed wrote this story for Agence-France Presse. Andrew Smith adapted it for VOA Learning English. ____________________________________________________ emissions –plural n. gases released into the atmosphere tilt –n. not straight up and down but set to the side at an angle axis –n. the imaginary line around which the Earth revolves, or turns cycle -n. an action or set of actions that repeat over a regular period sheet -n. a flat, wide extent of a material such as paper or ice precisely -adv. exactly factor -n. something that affects a process or development wobble -n. an apparently unsteady side-to-side motion glaciation –n. a period in which large areas of ice form and move random -adj. showing no particular order or period
伊萨姆·艾哈迈德为法新社撰写了这篇报道。 安德鲁·史密斯将其改编为美国之音英语学习频道。 ____________________________________________________ 排放——复数释放到大气中的气体 倾斜 –n.不是直上直下而是以一定角度放置在侧面 轴 –n。地球围绕其公转或转动的假想线 循环-n。在一定时间内重复的一个或一组动作 表-n.平坦、宽阔的材料，例如纸或冰 精确地-adv.正是 因子-n。影响过程或发展的事物 摆动 -n.明显不稳定的左右运动 冰川作用大面积冰形成和移动的时期 随机的-adj.没有显示特定的顺序或时期